Scunthorpe vs Crawley Town Predictions

It’s been a tough start to the new campaign for Scunthorpe, who’ve lost two out of two since dropping into the fourth tier of English football. Manager Paul Hurst will be hoping that this second home game of the season sparks a turnaround in fortunes, though facing a Crawley side that beat Salford City last weekend won’t be easy.

They may have lost first time out, though Scunthorpe’s performance certainly wasn’t without positives, as they bettered their opponents in term of both shots and expected goals, of which they only conceded a respectable 0.9, which tells us that they were slightly unfortunate to concede twice.

However, instead of building on a reasonable first effort, Scunny went backwards last time out, losing 4-1 against Cheltenham. On that occasion, the Iron struggled to get going offensively, as they posted a subdued 0.94 expected goals for and registered just three shots on target. At the other end, they surrendered seven shots on target and allowed their opponents to create 2.69 expected goals for, which ultimately spelled a dismal afternoon for Scunny’s travelling contingent.

In contrast, Crawley come into this game off the back of a commanding win. Not only did they get the better of Salford, but they did so in commanding fashion, creating a whopping 3.53 expected goals and conceding just 0.43.

Both against Carlisle and Salford, Crawley, who’re under the stewardship of Gabriele Cioffi, have shown that they’re not in this league to simply scratch around for a few points here and there, but that they’re here to get on the front foot and win games. An attacking approach has seen the Red Devils create register no less than 48 shots in two matches, while such a style has also resulted in a total of 5.73 expected goals for being created. If they can sustain such levels of offensive play, then Saturday’s hosts ought to do well this term.

In the betting ahead of this game, Scunthorpe look rather short. Paul Hurst, who’s known for making teams hard to beat, is likely to get it right eventually, but the first two efforts of the Iron have been displeasing. In contrast, Crawley have impressed, so it’s easy to feel that the early market hasn’t given them enough respect.

Scunthorpe looked susceptible to the counter against both Swindon and Cheltenham, which doesn’t bode well against a Crawley side that took full advantage of being given space to break into against both Salford and Carlisle. Add in the fact that Crawley, who’ve created 3.53 and 2.2 expected goals for, have simply created lots more than their hosts, who’ve laboured with figures of 1.0 and 0.94, and backing the visitors to get a positive result appears to represent a slither of value.

Those looking to nail the score-line can back Crawley to win by two goals to one. Something of a cavalier approach may mean that the Red Devils aren’t the toughest team to breach, though the early-season efforts of both suggest that Saturday’s visitors are a good bet to outscore their hosts.